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Existing home sales in the United States saw an unexpected rise in September, increasing by 1.5% to an annual rate of nearly four million units, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The increase was primarily observed in the South and West, while sales declined in the Northeast and remained steady in the Midwest.
Despite the monthly increase, Lawrence Yun, NAR's chief economist, noted that August and September were the two slowest months for home sales in 2026. Year-over-year, sales dropped by 2.2% as mortgage rates continued to climb. Yun explained that "home prices nationwide are in no danger of declining," and he forecasts a 14% rise in sales volume for existing homes next year, supported by solid job growth and easing mortgage rates, as mentioned in Yahoo Finance.
The NAR report also highlighted that the housing market still faces challenges, with affordability and economic uncertainty being significant concerns. Lisa Sturtevant, Bright MLS Chief Economist, stated that while falling mortgage rates and increased inventory have attracted some buyers, the market is still grappling with these headwinds.
Looking ahead, Yun predicts that mortgage rates will average around 6% in 2026, down from the current average of approximately 6.7%. He believes that even modest declines in mortgage rates could unlock substantial buyer activity, although rates are unlikely to return to the 3% level seen during the COVID-19 pandemic.