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A former Republican Congressman, Adam Kinzinger, is under investigation by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for trades made on the prediction market platform Kalshi. These trades were related to pardons issued by former President Joe Biden. According to Politico, the investigation focuses on transactions made between December 2024 and January 2025, which speculated on whether Kinzinger would receive a pardon.
Kinzinger, who was pardoned in early 2025 alongside other members of the House panel that investigated the January 6 Capitol riot, has denied any wrongdoing. He stated that he was not in office at the time of the trades and had no insider information. Kinzinger explained that he followed Kalshi's rules, which prohibit trading based on non-public information or influencing the outcome of events.
The CFTC, a federal financial regulator, is scrutinizing the trades as part of its broader oversight of prediction markets. Kalshi, which reported the trades to the CFTC, described the investigation as "very routine," according to The Hill. The platform has previously worked with the CFTC on similar cases to prevent insider trading.
Kinzinger, a vocal critic of President Donald Trump, left Congress in 2023 after choosing not to seek reelection. He was one of the ten House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump for his role in the January 6 attack. The former lawmaker has been critical of prediction markets, warning that they could lead to corruption if insiders are allowed to gamble on their own behavior.
The investigation comes as the CFTC increases its focus on prediction markets. Last month, the agency fined a former White House teleprompter operator for trades on presidential mention markets. Kalshi has implemented new policies to prevent politicians and other public figures from trading in markets where they have a direct interest.