Photo: PATRICK T. FALLON / AFP / Getty Images
California voters are sharply divided on Proposition 40, a ballot initiative proposing a one-time five-percent tax on billionaires' assets. The tax aims to offset federal healthcare cuts. According to a recent poll by the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies, 48% of likely voters support the measure, 41% oppose it, and 11% remain undecided.
Poll director Mark DiCamillo noted that support below 50% at this stage could signal trouble, as undecided voters in California often lean against ballot measures. The poll, conducted from August 3 to August 9, surveyed 4,207 registered voters, with 2,310 considered likely voters for the November election.
Proposition 40 has sparked a partisan debate. While 70% of Democrats support the measure, 80% of Republicans oppose it. Voters with no party preference are more evenly split, with 50% in favor and 39% against. The initiative is backed by the healthcare workers' union SEIU-UHW West and the California Democratic Party but faces opposition from Governor Gavin Newsom and some labor unions, as well as a group of billionaires.
The proposed tax would apply to billionaires residing in California as of January 1, 2026, and would be due with 2027 tax filings. The revenue would fund healthcare, education, and food assistance programs. The initiative allows for payment in five equal installments, with a 7.5% annual deferral charge on unpaid balances.
The measure's failure to secure a majority support raises concerns about its passage. DiCamillo emphasized the importance of turnout, especially among younger voters who are more likely to support the tax but historically vote less in midterm elections.
In addition to Proposition 40, voters will decide on competing measures, Propositions 41 and 42, which aim to nullify the wealth tax if passed. These measures have not yet gained significant voter awareness.
As the election approaches, campaigns for and against Proposition 40 are expected to intensify, with both sides seeking to sway undecided voters.