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Former New York Congressman George Santos has agreed to pay $35,000 to settle allegations related to betting on the prediction market site Kalshi. The settlement includes $17,500 he earned from the bets and an equal amount as a fine to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Santos allegedly placed bets on whether he would attend President Trump's State of the Union address in February, while simultaneously misleading the public on social media about his attendance plans.
Santos, who was expelled from Congress in December 2023 for various offenses, including stealing from contributors and lying to constituents, did not admit to the allegations. According to NPR, Santos' video on X (formerly Twitter) initially suggested he would attend the event, causing a spike in betting odds. However, he later revealed he was watching from an airport, leading to a drop in the market.
The CFTC and the Department of Justice (DOJ) launched investigations into Santos' activities after Kalshi flagged his trades. NBC News reported that Santos' actions are part of a broader scrutiny of prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket, which face concerns over potential insider trading.
Santos' legal troubles began with his expulsion from Congress and continued with a guilty plea in 2024 to charges including wire fraud and identity theft. He served only four months of a seven-year sentence after President Trump commuted his sentence in October 2025. The allegations against Santos highlight ongoing concerns about the integrity of prediction markets and their vulnerability to manipulation by individuals with insider information.