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New polling data reveals that Texas state Congressman James Talarico is expanding his lead over Attorney General Ken Paxton in the race for the U.S. Senate. According to a survey by Texas Public Opinion Research (TPOR) shared by The Texas Tribune on Tuesday (July 28), Talarico holds a five percentage-point advantage over Paxton among likely voters. This marks Talarico's largest lead in any public poll during the general election period.
TPOR's survey, conducted from July 15 to July 17, polled 1,048 likely voters and has a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points. The poll indicates that Talarico is leading among voters without a college degree and dominating among independents, with less than a quarter planning to vote for Paxton. The survey also shows Talarico winning 7% of self-described Republicans, with an additional 12% undecided. Meanwhile, only 1% of Democrats indicated support for Paxton.
The Texas Senate race is shaping up to be one of the most closely watched and expensive midterm contests in the country. Democrats have not won a statewide race in Texas for over 30 years, but they believe Talarico's populist messaging and Paxton's ethical challenges could lead to a Democratic victory. Despite Talarico's lead, Republicans remain confident that highlighting Talarico's progressive views on social issues will consolidate support for Paxton.
The poll also highlights Talarico's strong performance among Black and Latino voters, leading 71% to 8% and 66% to 20%, respectively. Paxton, however, maintains a lead among white voters, 53% to 33%.
The race remains competitive, with 14% of voters still undecided. Among these undecided voters, 19% lean toward Paxton, while 10% lean toward Talarico. As the election approaches, both candidates are expected to intensify their campaigns to sway undecided voters.
USA Today reports that Paxton's campaign is disputing allegations of voting irregularities, which could impact his support. Meanwhile, Talarico continues to focus on economic issues, aiming to connect with voters concerned about affordability and inflation.
With less than 12 weeks until early voting begins, the Texas Senate race remains a pivotal contest that could influence the balance of power in the U.S. Senate.