Photo: MIGUEL J. RODRIGUEZ CARRILLO / AFP / Getty Images
Federal forecasters from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have announced the formation of El Nino conditions, which could lead to severe weather events. On Thursday (June 11), NOAA issued an El Nino Advisory, suggesting that this event could be among the strongest in history. The conditions are expected to bring heavy rainfall and scorching temperatures, reminiscent of 2024 when global temperature records were broken.
According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), there is an 80% likelihood of an El Nino event during June–August 2026, with probabilities for continuation into November near or above 90%. The WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo stated that the organization will be closely monitoring the conditions to inform decision-making by governments and humanitarian agencies.
El Nino is characterized by a warming of ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern Equatorial Pacific. This warming can lead to less Atlantic hurricane activity and a milder winter, as well as increased rainfall in parts of southern South America, the southern United States, and other regions. Conversely, it can cause drier conditions in Central America, northern South America, and parts of southern Asia.
The emerging El Nino pattern could influence weather across North America, affecting rainfall, temperatures, and storm tracks. Early model guidance suggests that the developing El Nino may already be impacting atmospheric patterns, although the specific impacts remain uncertain at this stage.
NOAA forecasts a below-normal hurricane season for the Atlantic basin this year, as El Nino conditions typically suppress Atlantic hurricane activity. However, the Pacific hurricane season is expected to be more active, with AccuWeather predicting 17 to 22 named storms in the Eastern Pacific.
The WMO and NOAA emphasize the importance of preparedness and early warning systems to mitigate the impacts of El Nino. As the situation develops, updates will be provided to ensure that communities and sectors sensitive to climate changes are adequately informed and prepared.