Photo: BEN STANSALL / AFP / Getty Images
The United Nations has issued a stark warning about the climate, predicting that the next five years will likely see record-breaking temperatures. According to a report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), there is a 75% chance that the global average temperature between 2026 and 2030 will exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. This threshold was established as a critical limit in the 2015 Paris climate agreement.
The report highlights the potential for an overheating Arctic, which could warm nearly 3 degrees Fahrenheit by 2030, and forecasts a dangerous drought with potential wildfires in the Amazon. These changes are attributed to the continued burning of fossil fuels, which contributes to extreme weather events like floods, droughts, and heat waves.
There is a 91% chance that at least one of the next five years will surpass the 1.5-degree threshold, with an 86% likelihood that one of these years will break the record for the hottest year, currently set in 2024. The WMO projects annual global temperatures to range between 1.3 and 1.9 degrees Celsius above the late 1800s levels.
The report also warns of a strong El Nino event, which could exacerbate global warming and potentially make 2027 a record-breaking year. The Arctic is expected to experience significant warming, with temperatures rising 3.5 times faster than the global average.
UN climate chief Simon Stiell emphasized that global efforts to combat climate change are not keeping pace with the rising temperatures. He pointed out the severe human and economic impacts of extreme weather events, such as heatwaves, storms, floods, and droughts, which are becoming more frequent and intense.