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The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be less active than usual, with Colorado State University (CSU) forecasting that a strong El Niño will dominate and suppress storm activity. On Thursday (April 9), CSU released its seasonal outlook, predicting that the warming of Pacific Ocean waters, known as El Niño, will increase wind shear across the Atlantic, making it harder for hurricanes to form and strengthen. This forecast is supported by multiple climate models, some of which point to the possibility of a rare “Super El Niño” developing later this year, which could rival or surpass historic events seen in 1997–98 and 2015–16.
El Niño events typically shift global weather patterns for months, leading to cooler and wetter conditions in the southern United States and warmer, milder winters in the north. For the Atlantic basin, El Niño increases upper-level wind shear, a phenomenon that often “rips storms apart,” resulting in fewer named storms and hurricanes overall, as explained by CSU hurricane expert Phil Klotzbach in USA TODAY.
However, experts caution that El Niño is not the only factor shaping the hurricane season. Record warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures could still provide enough “rocket fuel” for storms that manage to develop, as seen in the active 2023 season despite El Niño’s presence. The University of Arizona’s forecast, using dynamic models and machine learning, projects a busier-than-average season due to these high ocean temperatures, even as European models like ECMWF predict fewer hurricanes than average.
While a strong El Niño makes a quieter hurricane season likely, forecasters urge communities along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts to remain alert and prepared, as even one major storm can cause significant damage despite overall lower activity. In recent years, even strong El Niño seasons have seen major hurricanes reach the United States. For example, in 2023, Hurricane Idalia made landfall as a major Category 3 storm in Florida.
The National Hurricane Center and meteorologists at the National Tropical Weather Conference are also focusing on better risk communication, including new forecast tools and graphics to help the public understand threats such as storm surge and extreme heat following a hurricane.
The season officially runs from June 1 to November 30.